Hey, the Chicago Cubs Are Good! But For How Long?

CSS asked our MLB guru Matt Musico if the North Siders can hold the NL Central lead until September.

HERE’S A SAD little baseball story.

Many years back, I was at a random late-spring-slash-early-summer Chicago Cubs game during a random season—don’t remember the exact year or month—and they beat the Pittsburgh Pirates by some random score.

The only reason the game held any kind of resonance was because the win catapulted the Cubbies into in first place in the National League Central.

We Cubs fans were so desperate for any taste of positivity that as we filed out of Wrigley Field, we chanted, “WE’RE NUMBER ONE! WE’RE NUMBER ONE!” for our entire sojourn to the Addison red line stop.

How lame is that? A half-game lead in freakin’ May sent us over the edge.

Needless to say, they Cubs were out of first place mere days later, and didn’t see the top of the division for the remainder of the season.

Fast forward to, well, today, when Wrigleyville’s finest sit atop the Central, and show no signs of giving it up. But we are talking about the Cubs, so a White Sox-esque 31-game losing streak wouldn’t shock anybody.

Anyhoo, what better time than now to welcome back our MLB sherpa, MLB Daily Dingers’ Matt Musico, who fielded a few questions about the Cubs’ immediate and distant-ish future.

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Alan Goldsher: As of this writing, the Cubs have a record of 40-25, third best in MLB. The last time they hit that mark after 65 games was 2008, a season in which they finished with a record of 97-64, won the NL Central, and were promptly swept in the Division Series by the Dodgers. From what you see now, can they equal or top 97 wins? Go out on a limb and pick a win total.

Matt Musico: Winning 97 games is a tall order. While four teams crossed that threshold in 2023, only one did in 2024 (the Dodgers – they won 98 games). And outside of that 2008 squad, the only other two times Chicago reached the 97-win plateau this century came in 2015 (97 wins) and 2016 (103 wins).

That’s the long way of saying I don’t think it’ll happen, especially with a National League that’s full of contenders. As I’m writing this, the Cubs are 17-18 against winning clubs so far this season. They’re the only 40-win team in baseball with a losing record in that scenario.

But I still think they’re on track to have a great regular season. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a 90-win team once the dust settles in September.

A.G.: Are they built for the playoffs? If not, what needs to be done?

M.M. I certainly think the offense is built for the postseason. The addition of Kyle Tucker and the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong have been huge for Chicago. As of this writing, the Cubs’ 118 team wRC+ ranks third in baseball, trailing only the Yankees and Dodgers. They’ve also shown a great ability to effectively run the bases.

That leaves us with the pitching staff, which ranks as middle of the pack thus far in 2025. I’d be most concerned with the rotation, which we’ve talked about previously. They’ve done a good job of weathering the storm without Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga, but they’re going to need some reinforcements.

A.G.: They’re slowly pulling away from the bottom of the NL Central. Should they be more concerned about St. Louis, Milwaukee, or Cincinnati making a run?

M.M.: What about the Pirates?! Just kidding. St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati are all squarely in contention, especially when looking at the Wild Card race.

I think the easy answer would be the Cardinals, but they haven’t shown much over the last couple of years. The Brewers are probably the best in the division when it comes to doing a lot with a little, but for some reason, I want to say the Reds. Even though the experience isn’t there, they have Tito Francona steering the ship, and they’re just young and cocky enough to potentially make a run.

A.G.: Last time we discussed the MVP award, Kyle Tucker was The Guy. It seems like Pete Crow-Armstrong has lapped him. True?

M.M.: Yeah, I think so. When you have people talking about a 40-40 season with elite base running and defense on one of baseball’s top-performing teams, it’s hard to deny it! We talked about him as a player to watch at the start of the year because he finally had a clear path to consistent playing time, and the 23-year-old has completely run with the opportunity.

You love to see it, especially since he’s gone from a “young player with promise” to a potential franchise cornerstone for years to come. We know the Cubs are thinking that way since they’re trying to lock PCA up to an extension before his value increases even more.

A.G.: Considering the injury situation, should we be nervous about the starting rotation? Or can Jameson Tallion and Matthew Boyd, Ben Brown, and Colin Rea keep them afloat? I’m nervous about Brown.

M.M. The rotation should be the biggest focus for Jed Hoyer as we approach the trade deadline next month. It’s always a concern for contending teams, but especially so for the Cubs since they’ve had to lean on their depth as much as they have already.

Brown’s advanced metrics say he’s been performing better than his 5.89 ERA (his xFIP is 3.30), but it’s not a guarantee that things will normalize any time soon.

It’s not like Hoyer needs to go out and get an elite ace for a huge trade package next month (although it would be nice). But if you’re starting to think about the playoffs—and, specifically, the best-of-three Wild Card series—you’d like to have at least a third/fourth arm that you feel supremely confident in with your season potentially on the line.

Imanaga will hopefully be back soon, but we all know nobody can depend on everyone staying healthy the rest of the way.

A.G.: Which Cubs can you see playing in the All-Star Game?

M.M.: In my eyes, I think PCA and Tucker should be there. Depending on how things fall with voting, filling out rosters, and potential replacements, maybe Suzuki sneaks his way in there.

A.G.: Should we put Craig Counsell in the Manager of the Year conversation?

M.M.: Yes, 100%. Even if the expectation was to be leading the division, I don’t think many expected them to have one of baseball’s best records with a top offense while also losing their top two starters for a prolonged period.

I think Dave Roberts and Bob Melvin are currently in line to also get some consideration for the award, but there’s no reason why Counsell shouldn’t be seen as a legitimate contender for it at this point in the year.

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