🏀 🏆 BREAKING: NBA Finals Prediction—Pacers Upset or Thunder Coronation? 🏆 🏀
Can Indiana finish off their improbable championship run, or will OKC pull off the inevitable?
FIRST OFF, let’s talk small market hoops on the big stage.
We mean this with the utmost respect: The Oklahoma City Thunder/Indiana Pacers matchup in the 2025 NBA Finals is the most backwater pairing in championship history.
I suppose you could put the 1994-95 Houston Rockets/Orlando Magic clash into the mix. The ‘89-’90 Portland/Detroit rumble bears mention, as does the Milwaukee Bucks/Baltimore Bullets meeting from 1970-71.
But with a combined population of slightly over 1.5 million, Thunder/Pacers is the epitome of small market.
And I couldn’t be happier about it.
I know, I know, the NBA is theoretically better when New York (population: 8.4 million), or Los Angeles (population: 3.7 million), or Chicago (population: 2.7 million) is in the Finals. But OKC/Indy has a Hoosiers vibe, and I’m down.
Second off, the Thunder and the Pacers are two really good, really entertaining teams, and I’d rather spent two weeks with then than the Knicks, the Lakers, or, the Bulls. This isn’t to say that New York and L.A. aren’t fun in their own way, but here in 2025, I’ll take MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over aging LeBron James.
And lord knows I have no interest in spending even one more day with the 2024-25 Chicago Bulls.
Anyhoobs, which small market scrapper will take home the hardware?
THE CASE FOR OKLAHOMA CITY
When you’ve won 18 more games than your Finals opponent, you roll into Game One feeling pretty good about things.
Your home court advantage certainly doesn’t suck.
And the fact that you’re led by the best player in the league—at least according to those with an MVP vote—puts the whole thing over the edge.
This series hinges on the battle between Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton. If the Indy star can elevate his game against SGA—think: a Russell Westbrook-ian run of triple-doubles—Indiana has a shot.
But Haliburton won’t go on a Russell Westbrook-ian run of triple-doubles.
Y’see, it turns out that SGA is a pretty good ball stopper—his 2024-25 defensive rating was a solid 107.4, 23rd best in the league, and third amongst point guards—and if he shuts down Haliburton, this could be a quick series…especially if OKC’s league-best D is as stifling as it was throughout the regular season.
It’s very much worth mentioning that the Thunder’s +12.9 point differential is a whopping 10.1 points better than Indy’s.
Everything is lined up for OKC to bring home the hardware for just the second time in franchise history.
THE CASE FOR INDIANA
Truth be told, there isn’t much of a case to be made for Indiana.
If they’re even going to make this series interesting, the Pacers will need a whole lot of things to fall in their favor—things that, for the most part, are out of their hands, things that rely on screw-ups and bad luck on the other side of the court, i.e.,
Consistent foul trouble from Gilgeous-Alexander.
A cold shooting streak from Chet Holmgren.
Bad rotational choices from coach Mark Daigneault.
And, of course, injury trouble.
The stats and the eye-test tell us that the Thunder are far superior to the Pacers, so three of the above factors will have to be a thing if Indy is going to stand a legit chance.
Which is a shame, because this is a fun team filled with good dudes.
PREDICTION
The Thunder are too good, and they have too many factors on their side, and it just feels like it’s their year.
Indy has enough talent and mojo to make life periodically difficult for SGA and the crew, but not anywhere near difficult enough.
Haliburton will have one scary night…but just one. Oklahoma City in five.