BREAKING: The Pros and Cons of the Alex Caruso/Josh Giddey Trade
The Chicago Bulls and the OKC Thunder made a major minor deal. It seems like a win/win, but in the NBA, little is what it seems.
The Chicago Bulls teardown begins. And it couldn’t come soon enough.
Today, the Bulls sent guard/forward Alex Caruso to the Oklahoma City Thunder in exchange for combo guard Josh Giddey, as first reported by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
For Chicago, jettisoning fan favorite Caruso appears to be the first step off of the Treadmill of Mediocrity, a step that, while painful, was necessary. Caruso is, was, and always will be a badass, but if the Bulls rolled into the 2024-25 season with an iteration of their current roster — a roster that I think we can all agree is a mismatched mess — we’d likely be looking at yet another .500 season, and yet another Play-In Tourney flameout.
All that said, the deal offers us plenty of pros and cons:
PRO: Chicago Becomes (Theoretically) Healthier
Throughout his college and pro careers, Caruso — who, as demonstrated by his Tasmanian Devil-esque approach to the game, clearly has little-to-no regard for his physical well-being — has done an absurd amount of damage to his body.
On multiple occasions, I’ve seen the dude dislocate both hips diving into the second balcony, then concuss himself flying headfirst into a stanchion, then get carried off the court on a stretcher, only to return two minutes later with his left arm Scotch taped onto his right ankle and his left leg Krazy Glued to his chin.
Okay, I exaggerate. But only slightly.
Thanks to his innate insanity, Caruso has never played a full 82 game season; for that matter, last year was the first time in his career he saw the court more than 70 times.
On the other hand, Giddey has topped 76 games in two of his three seasons in the Association, playing in a career-best 80 contests last year. Expect another 80 games from Giddey, give or take, because he’s not a fly-into-a-stanchion kind of guy.
CON: Chicago Loses Experience
Giddey has three NBA seasons under his belt, with a grand total of 181 playoff minutes. Caruso heads into his eighth season with 31 postseason games to his name. But youth is on Chicago’s side, as Giddey is 21-years-old to Caruso’s 30. Whether that’s a good thing remains to be seen.
PRO: Chicago’s Offense Gets a Jolt
Caruso is a straight-up stud wing defender, one of the finest the league has seen in years. On the offensive side of the ball, not so much.
Don’t get me wrong: The Texas A&M product has had his scoring moments, most memorably a 21-point outing in Chicago’s March 31 upset of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
But he’s never been a reliable offensive option, unlike Giddey, circa 2022. In his second season with OKC, the Aussie averaged 16.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, and 6.2 APG. This past year, his numbers took a noticeable dip (12.3 / 6.4 / 4.8), but that could be attributed to the fact that his backcourt mate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, boasted a career-high usage percentage of 32.6, while Giddey’s dipped from 24.6 in 2022-23 to 23.1 in 2023-24.
So yeah, let the kid eat.
CON: Chicago’s Defense Takes a Hit
One of my fave advanced defensive stats is Defensive Box Plus/Minus, which NBAstuffer describes as, “[A] one kind of a plus-minus metric that measures the difference per 100 possessions in points allowed with a player on the court versus off the court. The accuracy of this measure varies depending upon how often the player is on the floor and whom the player share it with.”
Basketball Reference tells us that Caruso’s career DBPM is 2.4, while Giddey’s is 0.1. Not optimal. Let’s move on.
PRO: Giddey’s Contract
In 2024-25, Josh will take home $8,352,367, while Alex will gross $9,890,000. Not much of a gap. But next year, different story.
After the 2024-25 season, Giddey will a restricted free agent, and unless he evolves into, say, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Bulls should have little trouble re-signing him.
After the 2024-25 season, Caruso will be an unrestricted free agent, and what with the Bulls’ directionless front office (I’m talking to you, Artūras Karnišovas), their meh coaching situation (I’m talking to you, Billy Donovan), and little hope for a ring (I’m talking to you, Jerry Reinsdorf), the odds of Caruso staying in Chicago were incremental at best. Better the Bulls get something for Alex today than nothing for him tomorrow.
CON: No More Coach on the Floor
Last season, the Bulls didn’t designate a captain (how Bulls is that?), and while DeMar DeRozan was the grizzled veteran who kept the kids in line, it was the demonstrative Caruso who seemed to rally the troops.
The soft-spoken Giddey doesn’t ooze alpha dogginess. But he’s 21. Give him a minute.
PRO: The Deck is Cleared For More Deals
Giddey will immediately slide into the starting lineup. Coby White isn’t leaving the starting lineup. Ayo Dosumnu is a fantastic sixth- or seventh-man. Jevon Carter is under contract for two more seasons. Most mock drafts have Chicago snatching up another guard, somebody like a Devin Carter or a Ron Dillingham.
That’s a buttload of guards, y’all, so somebody gotsta go. Or even multiple somebodies.
And those somebodies are named Zach Lavine and Lonzo Ball.
Lavine’s glitchy contract and Ball’s glitchier knee are two of the key factors in Chicago’s current state of stagnation; in any theoretical deals, Zach’s questionable money and Ball’s questionable health will make it exceedingly difficult for the Bulls to get equal value. But at this point, it makes sense for Chicago to cut bait and take what they can get.
CON: Still No Tangible Sense of Direction
In a vacuum, a Giddey/White/Dosumnu backcourt rotation sounds solid. But when paired with a goofy frontcourt featuring the incompatible trio of DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and whichever poor slob gets stuck playing the four, well, yikes.
Vucevic is a solid enough center, but he’s far from championship material. DeRozan is sublime, but he’s 35-years-old. And the less said about what the Bulls have at power forward, the better.
It’s possible that there’s some masterplan being drawn up as we speak, but after watching Karnišovas operate for the last four years, I kinda doubt it.
Listen, as I noted in my subheader, this is far from a perfect deal. But at least it gives us something different, and at this point, I’d much rather have different than yet another .500 season, and yet another Play-In Tourney flameout.