Bulls First-Rounder Ce N'est Pas Bon: Chicago Sports Stuff Mailbag
To the surprise of exactly nobody, the Chicago Bulls have another project on their hands.
THIS ISN’T a real mailbag letter…
Dear Alan-
Dude, why haven’t you opened your f*****g mailbag? I sent you a f*****g email a million years ago, and I’ve been waiting for-f*****g-ever for you to answer the f*****g question on your f*****g mailbag day, but I haven’t seen a f*****g mailbag day in f*****g months!
Not sincerely,
Annoyed Regular Reader
You know that’s a bogus mailbag letter because my real regular readers are classy and genteel, and would never use that kind of f*****g language.
That said, I can’t argue with any profane fake followers, because our imaginary Annoyed Regular Reader is on point: I haven’t opened the mailbag in for-f*****g-ever. And being that most of the emails I’ve blown off over the previous weeks and months were queries about the NFL Draft—my take: the Bears should’ve figured out a way to trade up and grab Ashton Jeanty, and that’s my final word on that particular prickly subject—I went by the credo, “Last one in, first one out,” and addressed the email that sat atop the pile.
So hello, NBA Draft post mortem.
Hey, Alan-
I’m on the fence about the [Chicago Bulls’] choice of Noa Essengue in the first [round of the NBA Draft]. On one hand, people who know things say he has a Giannis ceiling and a Siakam floor. On the other hand, after watching him in the Summer League with my own two eyes, he looks raw and skinny. On the third hand, the Bulls can afford to be patient because it’s not like they can contend in the East at any point in the next five seasons. Are you also on the fence, or do you love him, or do you hate him?
Lisa R., Chicago
I don’t need the fence, Lisa, because I intensely disliked the pick on Draft Night, and I intensely dislike it today, hard stop. And I’ll keep hating it. Until I don’t.
Let me preface the below by admitting that I’m a terrible, no good, very bad NCAA basketball scout. Like in terms of top overall selections, I thought Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns would tank, while Markelle Fultz and Deandre Ayton would be perennial All-Stars.
Oops.
My only two notable well-scouted players of the past two-plus decades were Dwyane Wade and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, both of whom I tabbed as top-two talents, both of whom were grabbed outside of the top-four. But I also thought 2014’s second-overall pick Jabari Parker was a lock for Rookie of the Year, so take the below take take with a grain of salt:
Noa Essengue will be a stiff.
SEEMS LIKE it’s a point of pride for Chicago Bulls ownership to hire terrible talent-spotters—and if for some odd reason you disagree, dig 33 of the franchise’s draft picks since 1999, accompanied by Chicago Sports Stuff’s less-than-in-depth analysis.
2025: Noa Essengue (TBD)
2024: Matas Buzelis (Shows potential)
2022: Dalen Terry (Bust)
2020: Patrick Williams (Bust)
2019: Coby White (Nailed it)
2018: Wendell Carter Jr. (Semi-thrived after offseason trade)
2018: Chandler Hutchison (Bust)
2017: Justin Patton (Bust after draft night trade to Minnesota)
2016: Denzel Valentine (Bust)
2015: Bobby Portis (Thrived after in-season trade to Milwaukee)
2014: Jusuf Nurkić (Semi-thrived after draft night trade to Denver)
2014: Gary Harris (Semi-thrived after draft night trade to Denver)
2013: Tony Snell (Meh)
2012: Marquis Teague (Bust)
2011: Norris Cole (Did okay in Miami)
2011: Jimmy Butler (Nailed it)
2010: Kevin Seraphin (Bust)
2009: James Johnson (Meh)
2009: Taj Gibson (Nailed it)
2008: Derrick Rose (Nailed it)
2007: Joakim Noah (Nailed it)
2006: LaMarcus Aldridge (Really thrived after draft night trade to Portland)
2006: Rodney Carney (Bust after draft night trade to Philadelphia)
2004: Ben Gordon (Nailed it)
2003: Kirk Hinrich (Nailed it)
2002: Jay Williams (Career cut short by tragic motorcycle accident)
2001: Eddy Curry (Bust)
2000: Marcus Fizer (Bust)
2000: Chris Mihm (Bust after draft night trade to Cleveland)
2000: Dalibor Bagarić (Bust)
1999: Elton Brand (Nailed it / Thrived after draft night trade to Los Angeles)
1999: Ron Artest (Thrived after in-season trade to Indiana)
1998: Corey Benjamin (Bust)
Okay, let’s break it down. And Bulls Nation, please avert your eyes and/or hold your nose:
33 picks.
One “TBD.”
One “shows potential.”
Four “Thrived after trade.”
Three “Semi-thrived after trade.”
One “Really thrived after trade.”
One “Meh.”
Seven “Nailed its.”
One “Nailed it elsewhere.”
And 13 busts.
Which tells us that since 1998, Chicago’s scouting department has a hit rate of 21.2%, with a bust rate of 39.9%
Which also tells us that the Bulls’ chances of pooping the bed on Draft Night are twice as high as they are of getting it right. And we have five indisputable factors that point towards Noa landing in the bust column:
In terms of height/weight ratio, at 6’10” and 200 pounds, Essengue is currently the NBA’s skinniest 6’8”-plus player, ahead of (or, depending on how you look at it, behind) only Chris Boucher (6’9”, 200) and Bilal Coulibaly (6’8”, 195).
Last season with Germany’s Ratiopharm Ulm, the forward/center averaged 10.7 points and 5.0 rebounds, while shooting 27.6% from beyond the arc, as per Tankathon.
Like Patrick Williams—Chicago’s dumbest first-round draft decision since they traded LaMarcus Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas in 2006 (oy gevalt)—the 18-year-old wasn’t his team’s go-to player in his recent pre-NBA life. (Williams, if you’ll recall—and I very much recall—was the sixth man in his only season at Florida State.)
As of this writing, Essengue has played three Summer League games, and the numbers don’t inspire confidence: We’re talking 12.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, and 26.7% from three, as per Eurobasket—not the kind of digits you want to see from the 12th pick in the NBA Draft…especially when he’s facing players who will never wear an NBA regular season uniform.
Most frustratingly, Derek Queen—the big who Artūras Karnišovas and his merry band of terrible talent evaluators should’ve selected—has balled out, racking of three consecutive double-doubles, and looking dominant in doing so.
SO HERE’S HOW it’ll ultimately play out with the teenager from Loiret, France:
He’ll spend his entire rookie season bopping back and forth between the G-League Windy City Bulls and Windy City mothership.
He’ll finish 2025-26 with low-single-digit averages in every major offensive category.
He’ll have two good games that’ll give Bulls Nation hope for the future.
Next season, he’ll be inserted into the starting lineup, where he’ll proceed to average mid-single-digit averages in every major offensive category.
After his rookie contract expires—and after four below-average seasons—Chicago will overpay him to the tune of four years, $85 million.
In year two of his second contract, the Bulls’ decision-makers will acknowledge that Essengue is indeed a bust, thus when they put him on the trading block, 29 NBA GMs will laugh their tushies off.
Another year, another whiff. See you after the inevitable Play-In Tournament loss.
Any questions for the C.S.S. team? Hit us up at ChicagoSportsStuff@gmail.com.