C.S.S. Q&A: Strat-O-Matic's John Garcia
We chat with a big muckity-muck from the original fantasy sports platform.
EVERY FRIDAY for the past few months, we’ve dropped a Chicago-centric sports simulation courtesy of our friends at Strat-O-Matic.
We’ve seen rookie Michael Jordan take on near-first-retirment Michael Jordan.
We’ve seen the two Bears Super Bowl squad duke it out.
We’ve seen an epic, very old-school Cubs/White Sox clash.
Now, after months of grinding, we sort of decided to give SOM the week off…and I say “sort of,” because rather than create a new simulated series, we had a chat with the company’s Chief Content Officer, John Garcia, who discussed the intersection of reality and fantasy sports, and gave us an exclusive preview of SOM’s upcoming new baseball series.
ALAN GOLDSHER: The Cubs’ record is just above.500, but their offense is mashing. Do you see them keeping it up?
JOHN GARCIA: They’ve got ten home runs each from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, and Seiya Suzuki, but it’s hard to sustain that. We actually ran a simulation in the preseason, and had the Cubs winning the World Series.
A.G.: Wait, what? Details, please.
J.G. Yeah, we had them winning the division with 91 games, and getting the three-seed, then taking down San Francisco, and matching up with the Blue Jays in the World Series, and winning in six games.
A.G.: Whoa, that's bananas. Have any of your past preseason sims come to fruition?
J.G.: Yes! We hit on the Braves winning their championship in 2021. And we ran a sim for the 2024 Stanley Cup, and we hit on all seven individual games correctly.
A.G. Nicely done, sir. Did you run a sim to see how many home runs Aaron Judge is going to hit this year?
J.G.: Well, we didn't have him quite on this kind of streak, but we had him 50-plus, for sure. We should probably run an update around Memorial Day — it could be one of the best Strat-O-Matic cards ever.
A.G.: The Cubs’ starting rotation has taken a massive injury hit. Do you see them overcoming that?
J.G.: They’ve had some tough losses, especially Shota Imanaga, who we had finishing third place for the Cy Young Award. If he's out for an extended period of time, that's a problem.
A.G.: How did Shota end up in third? That seems pretty high.
J.G.: He was striking out one per inning last year, but we had him reducing his home runs allowed this year. Obviously his ERA has always been excellent, so if he maintained last year's ratios and improved upon the home-runs-per-nine, that would amount to an excellent season, which is why we had him in the top three.
A.G.: Generally speaking, how does Strat-O-Matic deal with injuries?
J.G.: It’s really hard to do, but when you’re playing a full season, we always recommend that you stay true to the players’ actual playing time. We have injury ratings for pitchers, but it's really hard to limit these guys to their actual starts.
But then sometimes you see that five-star Jacob deGrom card, and you just want to know what would have happened if he played all year long. You just want to use that guy as much as you can.
A.G.: We have to talk about the White Sox, as much as it pains me. They don't have any good hitting, they don't have any good pitching, they don't have any good fielding, and they don't have any good coaching. Can they or will they exceed or break their worst-ever loss total from last year?
J.G.: I don’t think so. It's hard to maintain that level of ineptitude. Besides, the Colorado Rockies probably going to break that record. But it's really hard to reach that number of losses [two consecutive years]. At some point, you're gonna win a couple of games. It just kind of has to happen. Right?
A.G.: Hey, anything’s possible. Pivoting to NFL, the Chicago Bears made a ton of changes during the offseason. They amped up the defense. They got a couple really good rookie skill players in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. And the trenches on both sides of the ball have vastly improved. Do you see them hanging in a really tough NFC North, or are they still a work in progress?
J.G.: It all depends on Caleb Williams. I think the Bears have done exactly what you should do for your young quarterback, surrounding him with all this offensive talent, and I think Caleb is good enough to make that sophomore jump. I think they could hang around and compete for the playoffs.
A.G.: In terms of Strat-O-Matic, my major concern for the Bears on the offensive side of the ball is D’Andre Swift. Does their lack of a quality running game kill them as a quality SOM option?
J.G.: The Bears are going to be one of those teams where you're going to want to throw the ball as often as you can, and that's [relatively] easy to defend, both in the NFL and in Strat-O-Matic, so the lack of running game will hurt.
A.G.: As for the Bulls, they’re very much stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity. Will that be the same deal for Strat-O-Matic?
J.G.: Well, Strat-O-Matic follows real life.
A.G.: Of course it does. Now that that’s out of the way, what’s coming down the pike for SOM?
J.G.: We have a new set coming out that we haven't officially announced yet. It’s called Dead Ball Diamond Gems. It’s eight great teams from the early 1900s: The 1905 New York Giants, the 1906 Chicago Cubs, the 1909 Detroit Tigers, the 1909 Pittsburgh Pirates, the 1911 Philadelphia Athletics, the 1915 Boston Red Sox, the 1919 Chicago White Sox, and the 1919 Cincinnati Reds.
The — 1906 Cubs, who won 116 games and lost 36 — is easily one of the best of all time. The pitching was just unbelievable. Three-Finger Brown had a 1.04 ERA in 277 innings, which makes for. great card. The whole staff had a 1.75 ERA.
A.G.: Any other series in the works?
J.G.: Not that I can discuss on the record. We’ll revisit in July.
A.G.: Yeah, we will!
Since 2011, John Garcia has been a key member of the Strat-O-Matic research team and now serves as the company’s Chief Content Officer. A lifelong Strat-O-Matic player, he leads the creation of player cards for the baseball, basketball, and hockey games.