The Chicago Cubs Keep Winning—Why, How, and For How Long?
Our MLB guru Matt Musico waxes about the first-place North Siders.
THE NFL DRAFT is in our rearview mirror — as are the Chicago Bulls’ and Chicago Blackhawks’ franchises — and the White Sox are, to nobody’s surprise, doing White Sox things.
But the Cubs? Turns out they’re good. Whoda thunk?
We brought in our go-to baseball guy, MLB Daily Dingers’ Matt Musico, to explain why Wrigleyville — some way, some how — has become a fun place to be.
CHICAGO SPORTS STUFF: As I write this, the Cubs have a one-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central, and are three games behind the New York Mets for the best record in the NL, yet they’re only five games above .500. Two questions: Does their place in the standings surprise you, and are they where they are due to parity in the NL?
Matt Musico: I'm not really surprised at their current record and place within the division.
When we previewed the Cubbies before the season, I talked about them being in the mix for the division title based on the moves they made this offseason and the overall dynamic of the NL Central. I think it's something they can keep doing — after all, we've watched them do it for a month now — and at least still be in the mix as a potential buyer as the trade deadline approaches.
CSS: Kyle Tucker is off to a sick start. Do you see him amping it up, falling off, or holding steady?
M.M.: Tucker has proven to quietly be one of the more consistent sluggers in today's game. When healthy for a full season, you can expect 25-30 homers from him with an OPS in the .800-.900 range. What's interesting is that what he's done so far this year pretty much mirrors what he did in a shortened 2024 campaign with the Astros.
Through his first 136 plate appearances as a Cub, he's slashing .289/.397/.579, good for a .976 OPS. That looks eerily similar to his final 339 plate appearances as an Astro last year: a .289/.408/.585 triple slash, good for a .993 OPS.
With that type of sample size, I could see it holding somewhat steady since there's a clear change in his batted-ball profile. He put up a 38.4% ground-ball rate and 42.5% fly-ball rate in 2023, both of which are close to his career numbers.
His ground-ball rate went from that to 28.0% in 2024 to its current 22.7% mark. The inverse is happening with his fly-ball rate, which went from that 42.5% number to 52.4% last year. It's currently sitting at 53.6%. Pair that with a hard-hit rate that's hovering around 34.0% and you've got a decent recipe for good power.
CSS: Both Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya are hitting exceedingly well, Will one of them end up owning the catcher spot, or will manager Craig Counsell keep rolling with the timeshare?
M.M.: It probably depends on how things continue to pan out. The production Chicago is getting out of catcher is excellent, so I could see Counsell continue to mix and match to find the best possible outcome, both from an offensive standpoint and to also keep the starting rotation/bullpen as comfortable as possible as the season drags on.
CSS: The Cubs are leading the league in runs by a fairly large margin. Will they keep it up?
M.M.: Hey, anything is possible!
I don't think any of us thought a couple of months ago that we'd be talking about the Cubs offense like this — especially when you look at some of the league's other top teams.
It's been encouraging to see Tucker do exactly what the club was hoping he'd do, as well as Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong (who is leading Cubs position players with a 2.0 fWAR, btw) getting off to fast starts.
Scoring a lot of runs is great, but it's only half the game. If we're looking at raw numbers, I'm most interested in how their run differential continues to hold up. Their +39 mark is second to only the Reds (+41) as I sit here and write this.
CSS: The pitching staff has been middling. Will they need to make a move to strengthen the rotation, or are the okay as-is?
M.M.: The old adage is that you can never have enough pitching, especially when it comes to starting pitching. FanGraphs tells me that six different Cubs pitchers have started a game so far this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if that number ultimately falls somewhere within the 10-15 player range.
Losing Justin Steele is a big blow for the rotation. He was expected to be part of a two-headed monster with Shota Imanaga along the way, so not having him for the rest of this year hurts.
Even if it's just some spot starts, they're going to need more depth, especially if they're seen as a contender by the trade deadline. The bigger question at that point would then be what kind of move(s) Jed Hoyer and company are comfortable making to improve the club.
CSS: Ben Brown’s been lucky in that he’s gotten some offensive help, and he’s needed it, as his ERA is 6.04 and his WHIP is 1.89. Will he get it together?
M.M.: He'll need to start getting dudes to chase balls out of the zone a little more. He's allowing more hard contract and less hard contact overall compared to last year, and while he's generating ground balls at a 42.9% clip and his fly-ball rate has dropped from 45.3% to 32.5%, his line-drive rate allowed has gone from 16.1% to 24.1%.
While hitters still seem to be swinging at balls inside and outside the strike zone at similar rates compared to 2024, their contact rate on pitches outside the zone has dropped from 43.2% to 32.8%. Thus, harder contact and more line drives make sense.
CSS: Ryan Pressly is looking good out of the ‘pen—but is he looking good enough to get them across the finish line?
M.M.: I think what you're seeing here is someone finally happy with the role he's playing. Part of the reason why he OK'd a trade to the Cubs was that Houston bringing in Josh Hader to close instead of Pressly fractured the hurler's relationship with the organization — one he was a two-time All-Star closer for and primarily held down the ninth inning in 2022 when the Astros won the World Series.
So, I definitely think he has what it takes to be The Guy to close the door as long as the Cubs need him to.
CSS: How long do you envision them staying in first?
M.M.: I see a see-saw battle between them and a couple of other NL Central teams. If the Brewers can get their act together, they're a threat, but I think the Reds are the biggest obstacle right now. They're hot — Cincy has won four in a row at the time of this writing — have an exciting young core group of players, and have Terry Francona there to try and transform the clubhouse into a winning atmosphere.
Even if the Cubs aren't in first for much longer, I wouldn't be shocked to see them take it back on several occasions over the next few months.
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