The Chicago Bears' Bold Predictions Time Machine -or- Where Did I Go Wrong?
How much boldness can one Substack page handle?
Back in April — mere days after the Chicago Bears scooped up quarterback Caleb Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze in the first round of the NFL Draft — I dropped an article here on CSS entitled “10 Wild Chicago Bears Predictions For the 2024 Season.”
Some of said predictions were reasonable, while others were straight-up absurd…but all of them were (I think) enjoyable. So what with the Bears’ season kicking off in, like, two minutes, I’m revisiting the whole mess in order to measure the level of plausibility and/or foolishness of this thought experiment.
And since I’m a sportswriting masochist, I’ll re-revsit on January 6, 2025, the morning after Chicago’s season closer against Green Bay. And if I nail 33% of these, I’m totally taking a victory lap by Lake Michigan. In just my bathing suit. Even if it’s blizzarding.
Because, sportswriting masochism.
1) THE CHICAGO BEARS QB CURSE WILL BE BROKEN
DO I STAND BY THIS?
Yep.
WHY?
Williams has (mostly) been a beast in training camp and in his limited preseason action, but he showed out enough to convince me that he’ll be Chicago’s long-term answer at the QB position.
If nothing else, he’ll be better than Justin Fields. And Mitch Trubisky. And Jay Cutler. And Kyle Orton. And Rex Grossman.
I could go on.
2) ROME ODUNZE WILL REMAIN CHICAGO’S WR3 FOR THE WHOLE YEAR…BUT JUST BARELY
DO I STAND BY THIS?
Not really.
WHY?
D.J. Moore (WR1) and Keenan Allen (WR2) are All-Pro-level talents, and will be both wonderful security blankets and deadly weapons for Caleb. Odunze, on the other hand, will be an X-factor, a downfield terror who’ll deliver a large handful of splash plays.
But Chicago has so many quality receiving options — let’s not forget Cole Kmet and D’Andre Swift — that the rookie won’t see enough targets to enter the WR2 convo.
3) MONTEZ SWEAT WILL DOMINATE
DO I STAND BY THIS?
Oh, hell to the yeah.
WHY?
Sure, Tez barely set foot onto the field in the Bears’ three preseason tilts, but I don’t need to see him play a single snap to know that the 27-year-old — now that he’s had a full off-season and training camp living with Head Coach Matt Eberflus’ playbook — is going to tear it up in 2024.
As I threw out there in this week’s real bold predictions piece, don’t be surprised if Sweat takes home the 2024 NFL sack title.
4) TORY TAYLOR WILL SHUT DOWN THE HATERS
DO I STAND BY THIS?
One. Hundred. Percent.
WHY?
Since 2000, only six punters have been selected in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft:
Bryan Anger - 3rd round (70th overall) by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2012.
Andy Lee - 4th round (188th overall) by the San Francisco 49ers in 2004.
Matt Araiza - 3rd round (82nd overall) by the Buffalo Bills in 2022.
Mitch Wishnowsky - 4th round (110th overall) by the San Francisco 49ers in 2019.
Daniel Sepulveda - 4th round (112th overall) by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2007.
Steve Weatherford - 4th round (104th overall) by the New Orleans Saints in 2006.
Grabbing a kicker outside of the Mr. Irrelevant phase of the Draft is generally frowned upon, but in this instance, you can turn that frown into not a frown.
I was among the small contingency of pigskin pundits that raved — raved, I tells ya — when GM Ryan Poles snatched up a punter in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The Aussie rookie proved my vocal minority correct during the preseason, as he averaged 49.2 yards in his 5 punts. (I know, it’s a teeny sample size. But still.)
For context, that 49.2 would’ve had him ranked seventh in the league in 2023. For more context, the Bears’ 2023 punter, Trenton Gill, averaged 46.1 yards per kick, good for 26th in the NFL.
So yeah, Taylor’s gonna single-handedly win Chicago a game or two. Or three.
5) THE RUNNING GAME WON’T BE SUPER-HELPFUL
DO I STAND BY THIS?
Nah.
WHY?
Confession: I wasn’t super-psyched about the D’Andre Swift signing, but lukewarm takes like that are why I’m a dumbass sportswriter and not an NFL GM. By all accounts, Swift has balled out during training camp, running with attitude and developing a nice chemistry with his rookie QB, so what do I know?
I’m not convinced that backups Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson will make any meaningful contributions, but Swift will be fine.
6) THE DEFENSE WILL BE VERY GOOD, BUT NOT ELITE
DO I STAND BY THIS?
Nope.
WHY?
Starting units don’t get much action during the preseason, so we NFL pundits who weren’t cool enough to get training camp press credentials can’t make any informed judgements about much of anything. But from what we’ve seen and read over the summer, this Bears D is confident, grouchy, and hungry.
A top-five finish in multiple statistical categories is very, very realistic. So yeah, elite.
7) THE BEARS WILL SPLIT THE SEASON SERIES WITH ALL THREE OF THEIR DIVISIONAL RIVALS
DO I STAND BY THIS?
Not so much.
WHY?
From the Department of Staying Consistent, in my final Chicago game-by-game win/loss breakdown, I had the Bears getting swept by both Detroit and Green Bay, but sweeping Minnesota. A 2-4 in-division record ain’t great, but they’ll make up for it by winning most, if not all of their cupcake games.
8) MATT EBERFLUS WON’T LOSE HIS JOB
DO I STAND BY THIS?
Totally.
WHY?
Thanks to his warm-and-fuzzy turn in this season’s Hard Knocks, Flus is suddenly a beloved figure both in Chicago and around the NFL, impressive for a dude whose job security was very much in question for most of 2023.
Unless the Bears pull a White Sox and lose over 100-plus games — which I’m thinking they probably won’t — the third-year HC will make it to season four.
But what about season five? Very much TBD.
9) THE BEARS WILL NOTCH THEIR FIRST WINNING RECORD SINCE 2018
DO I STAND BY THIS?
You betcha.
WHY?
Third-easiest schedule in the league. Best collection of pass catchers in franchise history. A defense that hates opponents, the media, and probably you. It would take a massive rash of injuries to derail this theoretically ascendent roster.
10) CHICAGO WILL BE ONE OF THREE NFC NORTH TEAMS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
DO I STAND BY THIS?
Comme ci, comme ça.
WHY?
This season, the North will be one of the toughest, if not the toughest division in the league, but I’m on the fence as to whether the Bears, the Packers, and the Lions can all rack up the 10-plus wins (or maybe even the 11-plus wins) necessary to ride into the postseason. There’s a reasonable shot, for sure, but I won’t die on that particular hill — I mean, there’s only so much boldness one Substack page can handle, right?
Right.